Market Wrap Week Ending 04/11/22
Markets look forward not backward whereas traders look backward and not forward. This paradox means that whilst markets are thinking about next year traders are obsessing about last Wednesday’s sharp rate rise by the Fed. This paradox means that traders are often left behind because their narrative is one of worry and concern whereas the…
The Mentor Program is Opening for Bookings Next Week
THERE ARE ONLY a few days to go before we open up for booking for the Mentor Program. The Mentor Program is a 6-month, repeat-for-free, comprehensive training course for traders of all levels. The Mentor Program kicks off in February, but we open for bookings on Thursday 10th November. To get access, you need…
Visualizing 40 Years of U.S. Interest Rates_
So why is everyone surprised that they eventually started to go back up? More here – Visual Capitalist
The Power of Not Having a View
If you work in the investment industry then you must have a view. Always. About everything. When will inflation peak? Will the Fed pivot? How will Japanese equities fare over the next six months? Is Amazon expensive? Does this fund manager have skill? If we don’t have an opinion then we either lack knowledge or…
Bitcoin Bust or What?
In my previous market wrap, I posted a chart similar to the one below highlighting the current action in Bitcoin. Given that I find compression patterns with declining volatility interesting it’s worth spending a little bit more time analysing what exactly is happening with price at present. However all these things have to be viewed…
Crypto Hackers Set for Record Year After Looting Over $3 Billion
Cryptocurrencies may have crashed this year but they remain a digital cash-machine for one potent constituency: hackers. At least $718 million has been stolen so far in October alone, taking the gross tally for the year past $3 billion and putting 2022 on course to be a record for the total value hacked, according to…
Lessons In Innumeracy Part 2
Traders quoting annualised returns need I say more. Well, I probably should, one of the things that is most annoying to me is traders who will take a return from a given stock let’s say over a month, and then annualise that return to predict what they’re going to make in the coming year. Intriguingly…
Lessons in Innumeracy
One of the things that has always amazed me about financial markets is the apparent lack of numeracy I see in many of its participants. As an example consider the table below which looks at gains made in the subsequent years by the S&P500 when it has been down 25% or worse in a given…
