Crap Technical Analysis

Technical analysis is a broad church that runs from high powered quants who scan reams of data looking patterns and anomalies to the near religious zealotry of Gann followers to simpletons like me who merely want to know if the trend appears to be up or down. Unfortunately, this broadness brings with it problems as…

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Jeff Bezos Step Aside

Loving all the talk about outrageous returns on social media lately. Particularly those claiming deep triple-digit returns. The attached image shows what 1000% return looks like on various starting amounts. Expect to see some of you in Forbes list of billionaires quite soon.

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Well Bugger

I offer this without comment. The background is that apparently this punter thought that Luckin Coffee INC ADR was a sure thing and put their life savings into it. Apparently it didn’t go as planned. For reference.

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Why Lives Are Like They Are

I am often perplexed when people begin to talk about the state of their lives. My confusion arises because I see their actions and then think well your life couldn’t really go any other way. I have mentioned my postie before who goes home and undoubtedly wonders why he is not the chairman of the…

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Can Meditation Make Us Better Traders And Investors?

There is significant evidence that meditation can help us deal with stressful situations, including the recent pandemic and the challenges of doctoral education, as well as mental health concerns such as depression and anxiety. The site, in their review of the science behind meditation, notes such benefits as improved attention, increased emotional resilience, greater…

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Investment Risk is about the Extreme and the Unseen

When an event such as the coronavirus pandemic hits markets, investor attention is inevitably drawn to the damage that can be wrought by high impact, unpredictable episodes. This is understandable as such occurrences can have disastrous financial consequences.  I touched upon managing the risk of ruin in my post on ergodicity[i], and Morgan Housel recently…

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Why We’re Blind to Probability

The idea that something can be likely and not happen, or unlikely and still happen, is one of the world’s most important tricks. But let me tell you about a common problem. I’m as guilty of it as anyone else. It’s that most people understand probability, but few actually believe in it. Most people get that certainties…

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Our Dangerous Addiction to Prediction

In Alex Garland’s recent sci-fi TV series Devs, Silicon Valley engineers have built a quantum computer that they think proves determinism. It allows them to know the position of all the particles in the universe at any given point, and from there, project backwards and forwards in time, seeing into the past and making pinpoint-accurate forecasts…

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How Not to Be Stupid

Adam Robinson: Right. It’s so funny you should ask that, because people think stupidity is the opposite of intelligence. In fact, stupidity is the cost of intelligence operating in a complex environment. It’s almost inevitable. And so I was asked by an organizer of an investment conference in the Bahamas of some elite global investors…

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Maybe A Small Silver Lining

Whilst it is difficult to see anything that is positive coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic in years to come we may look back and say at least we were spared Russia’s entry into the Eurovision 2020 Song Contest. What has been seen cannot be unseen……

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Confirmation Bias And the Power of Disconfirming Evidence

Confirmation bias is our tendency to cherry-pick information that confirms our existing beliefs or ideas. Confirmation bias explains why two people with opposing views on a topic can see the same evidence and come away feeling validated by it. This cognitive bias is most pronounced in the case of ingrained, ideological, or emotionally charged views.…

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