The chart below shows a series of predictions by experts on the future of the US 10-year T-Note. As you can see they missed by miles which should not be any surprise at all what is surprising is that anyone still listens to them. Source – WSJ
This is not a bad introductory primer on volatility which is one of the most misunderstood topics in trading. Although, I do think they make too much of extraneous fundamental factors such as news and earnings and not enough about herd behaviour. From my perspective volatility is simply a function of the human perceptual filter…
The Wall Street Journal says Los Angeles faces a glut of mansions built on spec and priced above $20 million. About 50 such houses are currently for sale, and there isn’t enough dumb money around to buy them all, so sellers are having to resort to both price cuts and absurd marketing techniques, such as open houses that are…
DR. JIM SIMONS. NAME RING a bell? I thought not. Flying under the radar of the media, he got a PhD in Mathematics and was recruited as a code breaker by the National Security Agency in the US. Then, he applied his advanced math skills to the stockmarket and became one of the world’s most…
IT WAS YEAR 11 for me. The school play auditions were on. I desperately wanted the role of the hippie drug addict. I’d arrived, dressed in flower power glory, absolutely sure I’d nail the role. I auditioned brilliantly… really, if you had have been there, you would have thought I was as high as a…
WHEN MY LITTLE guy, Ryan, was in Prep – the parents were invited into the classroom. The teacher asked “What do your parents do?” Each child had to stand up and answer, in front of the whole class. (The goal was to show the parents that kids don’t care what occupation they have, that the…
SIGNIFICANT BIRTHDAYS HAVE a way of making you look backward… and forward. I’ve just reached a milestone birthday. Five decades. I can’t help but reflect. If we’re to go on averages, the days ahead will be fewer than those I have already lived. With the days I’ve left behind, I feel content. Now, I find…
At this year’s Euroanaesthesia Congress (the annual meeting of the European Society of Anaesthesiology) in Vienna, Austria (1-3 June), doctors present the unique case of a man who suffered a flash fire in his chest cavity during emergency heart surgery caused by supplemental oxygen leaking from a ruptured lung. More here – EurekAlert
As everyone knows I am not a fan of news, I find it a noisy distraction from actually getting on with life. However, I have another reason for not liking the news and it is simply that it does not in any way represent the reality of the majority of peoples lives for the majority…
Choking is a ubiquitous and extremely frustrating human weakness – as the stakes are raised, our performance usually improves, but only up to a point, beyond which the pressure gets too much and our skills suddenly deteriorate. Any new psychological tricks to ameliorate this problem will be welcomed by sports competitors, students and anyone else…
Now that May is in the rear vision mirror you will no doubt be bombarded by invocations to sell In May and go away. The rationale being that the markets best months are behind it and you are best off leaving and coming back in October. I have always found finances little myths quite quaint…
Here’s an argument you hear a lot: the gigantic cash burn rates at the likes of Tesla and Uber are nothing new, because today’s established tech greats also churned through tons of cash in their early years. In fact, we keep hearing from champions of these glamor stocks on business TV shows and pundits’ blogs…
As you know I tend to collect junk mail that I am randomly sent – I am always interested in what people have to say about various bits and pieces. I am particularly interested in the material sent out by professional money managers. It must be difficult to justify taking money off people when you…
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