LATEST BLOGS

Fredkins Paradox

Trading is a decision making profession – every day traders are forced to make decisions. We either have to choose between instruments we are going to trade or simply choose not to trade at all. Its quite a simple binary profession  that is hopefully  governed by some form of structure that guides your decision making…

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Predicting the failures of prediction markets

Abstract Prediction markets have been an important source of information for decision makers due to their high ex post accuracies. Nevertheless, recent failures of prediction markets remind us of the importance of ex ante assessments of their prediction accuracy. This paper proposes a systematic procedure for decision makers to acquire prediction models which may be used…

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Detoxing is Bullshit

Scientifically speaking, “detoxing” isn’t a thing. Your body doesn’t retain so-called toxins ingested via food or drugs or plastic dishes, or breathed in through air. You don’t sweat them out at yoga, get rid of them via special massage, or purge them through colonics. As writer Dara Mohammadi put it in a scorching takedown of the dominant wellness watchword…

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Round Number Price Barriers in U.S. Stock Market

Abstract This paper examines the existence of round number price barriers in the U.S. stock market. I show that stock prices clusters around multiples of $10 as a result of the price barriers. The price barriers results in abnormal future return pattern; a long-short portfolio formed around the barrier held for a week produces 17…

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Ethical Investing

Lately my junk mail inbox has been inundated with bits and pieces regarding ethical investment. Every now and again it seems if the investing community goes on a bit of a tear and everybody plays follow the leader. Much of what I have been receiving is based upon a paper from last year – Foundations…

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Beating the Odds – Susquehanna International – Jeff Yass

Jeff Yass was always a little different from his peers — a brilliant young man taken with poker and horse racing and the power of rational decision-making. He’s used all of it to turn his company — Bala Cynwyd’s stealthy and mysterious Susquehanna International — into one of the world’s most lucrative and powerful financial…

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Odd Thing Of The Day

My supermarket has a small community bulletin board that you see as you exit with your shopping. On it is the usual collection of flyers advertising various forms of music lessons, social and sporting clubs. These are all fairly generic but one particular flyer did catch my eye. It was from Monash University and it…

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