YTD Performance

It hasn’t been the best of years for most asset classes – Most of the worlds equities markets have had a a negative return to date and based upon the current degree of gyrating I am not certain it will get much better in the next three weeks.

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Whats The Fuss?

I am intrigued at the constant doom and gloom talk around the property market, not because I have any particular view on property since what I know about property could be written on a gnats arse with a six inch nail. However, I do know a lot about markets and systems and their natural ebbs…

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What Can Investors Do About Overconfidence?

  Overconfidence can have a profound impact on our decision making, but can be difficult to acknowledge and even harder to rectify.  It also seems likely that overconfidence is a particularly pernicious bias in the investment industry, for the following reasons: – Selection bias: There is probably a selection bias into front office investment management roles…

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Poor Academics Make More Predictions.

In the past week a paper titled  Dynamical Variety of Shapes in Financial Multifractality has been doing the rounds. The abstract of the paper states – The concept of multifractality offers a powerful formal tool to filter out a multitude of the most relevant characteristics of complex time series. The related studies thus far presented…

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Monty Hall Problem and Variations

You stand before three closed doors. The doors are evenly spaced and appear identical, aside from being numbered from 1 to 3. One of the doors conceals a car, while each of the other two doors conceals a goat. The host of this game, Monty Hall, asks you to select a door. If you select the…

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This Took Me By Surprise

Whilst having breakfast at my local this morning I spied a piece on the resurgence of Microsoft  (MSFT) under current CEO Satya Nadelle who has managed to move the company beyond some the disastrous decisions made by former CEO Steve Ballmer. The thrust of the piece was the MSFT was worth almost as much as…

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Final Thoughts for December

UNDER PRESSURE WE snap. We get paranoid. We assume the worst. It crushes our sense of fun and our passion. I see it in my friends. Stress mounts up and they become their worst version of themselves… or the best. Some take it as a platform to launch themselves into their true life’s purpose. Recognising…

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Should You Delegate?

LET’S ASSUME YOU work the average 40 hours per week, but you’re an over-achiever so you put in 50-weeks a year. That’s 2,000 hours of paid employment. If you want to make $100,000 a year, each working hour needs to produce $50. If you want $1 million a year, each working hour must produce $500.…

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Old Before Their Time

SO MANY PEOPLE ARE old before their time. With their dour pessimism dripping off their faces, they snivel and gripe about the most minor things. Even some 30 year-olds can seem like grumpy old men and women if their attitude is below par. What happened to their youthful awe and wonder about the world? Their…

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Purpose Trumps Passion

I HEARD A TRADER literally say, “Oh my god, I want to trade full-time so badly. I’m putting in 100%, and I’m going to throw everything I’ve got at it. This is my passion. I love everything about trading!” Then, I watched in dismay as they fizzled out after a series of 12-hour days watching…

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People Don’t Want Jobs Anymore

A LOAD OF PEOPLE no longer want a boss. According to a new report by an accounting company called FreshBooks, the number of self-employed workers could triple by 2020. According to CNN Money, today, the average person has four different jobs before the age of thirty two. Twenty years ago, the average person had only…

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Myth and Reality

One of the problems with trading is that it is awash with various pieces of wisdom and mythology that dont stand up to scrutiny. I try as much as possible to run an evidence based life and when I dont understand something or I hear something that is a bit off the stock standard piece…

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