I was mucking around with the yearly returns on the S&P500 – I wanted to see how the returns were distributed and I got the graph below. The graph covers almost a century of data and told me something very interesting – there are actually fewer down years than I had imagined. I didnt really…
The most unusual coincidence in my life took place when I flew from Boston, my home, to Chicago to meet Scott Isenberg, the new editor assigned to revise a statistics textbook I had authored a few years earlier. We were having dinner at a restaurant overlooking Lake Michigan, and Scott began to talk nostalgically about…
I am somewhat of an evangelist on this topic. Click the image below to be taken to the show.
I am in no way a fundamental analyst – in fact as a skill set for investing I regard it as irrelevant and an example of being seduced by your own narrative fallacy. However, I am in business and I am intrigued as to why some businesses stall, whither and die. I came across the…
McCartney has worked so hard at seeming an ordinary bloke that it is easy to miss the least ordinary and least bloke-ish thing about him: the magnitude of his melodic gift. A genius for melody is a strange, surprisingly isolated talent, and doesn’t have much to do with a broader musical gift for composition; Mozart…
Kindt, 48, has devoted her career to understanding human fear and memory. She has built her own laboratory, published in the most prestigious scientific journals, and developed a simple treatment she hopes might one day help millions of people who suffer from PTSD, phobias, and other anxiety disorders. In her clinic, she has seen it…
Last week I wrote about the problems people had drawing an item they were often intimately familiar with. The study I cited was used as a mechanism to highlight the fact that we actually know less than we think we do. Coincidentally Gianluca Gimini an artist has been collecting images of bike drawings since 2009 and…
Today has been clean out day for part of my email archive and as usual it is filled with the detritus that you pick up over the months. But this clean out is slightly different because it had a distinct theme, this folder was full of emails from people who were promising to develop stuff,…
Jeremy He started pouring his savings into commodities last month after losing money in China’s stock rout and deciding that returns from his WMPs were too low. The 25-year-old employee at a multinational trade company in Shanghai set up a joint account with his friend to trade futures on rebar, coal and cotton, making as…
Due to an amusing website glitch, I will be extending the Early Bird Special Offer by 1-day for our Markets Gone Mad Gold Coast function. Almost every day, I get emails from traders, wanting to know which markets to trade at the moment. They want to know how to raid the markets… raid the profits…
It has been some time since I took a really long term view of a market. It tends not to be part of my trading vernacular simply because of the time frames I trade, to my way of thinking data drifts off into the irrelevant beyond a certain point. However, as a student of the…
Click the image below for story and video – Mediocrity pays really well for some…….
The Devil looks you in the eyes and offers you a bet. Pick a number and if you successfully guess the total he’ll roll on two dice you get to keep your soul. If any other number comes up, you go to burn in eternal hellfire. You call “7” and the Devil rolls the dice.…
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