When I first began my trading journey, the single available market was the ASX, which was not a fully integrated exchange at the time; there were separate exchanges in Melbourne and Sydney. The market opened at 10:00 a.m. and closed at 4:00 p.m., and provision was made for a long lunch for brokers to wander…
The sword was suspended in the basement rafters with a message from 1945 still secured to its fittings. My grandfather and I were sitting one floor above it at his kitchen table when an email arrived. It was 9:17 A.M. on Christmas Day in 2021, the Chicago weather too mild, the ground too much of…
Every so often I get sent an article for comment – these generally turn out to be an exercise in critical thinking more than analysis. It is not difficult to pick apart a general thesis. The issue is that most lack the confidence, skills or experience to do so. We are also programmed to fall…
If you were to run a competition for the most maligned and misunderstood trading technique in Australia short selling would most likely come out on top. The intriguing thing about this is that not that short selling is misunderstood by uber sooks such as Gerry Harvey but also by market regulators such as ASIC. Who…
I have been working through Steve Magness’s book Win the Inside Game. Generally, these sorts of self-help books don’t do much for me since they all revolve around basic concepts that any adult who wants to move forward should already have on board. My somewhat harsh interpretation is if you have to get it from…
Imagine it’s ten years ago and you are assessing the relative merits of market cap weighted exposure to US equities and an equally weighted allocation. Across a range of valuation metrics you can see that the equal weighted index is moderately cheaper. As luck would have it you also have a crystal ball that tells…
“It’s 10 pm, I’m going to bed,” is what I told the group of friends, teammates, and strangers who were gathered in our house for a get-together during college. It was a Friday night and I had a long run the next morning. For much of my time, I was a bit obsessive. I wanted…
Market commentary of late has been awash with the use of the word volatility and to flog a dead horse most of the people using the word are using it incorrectly. This misuse is generally a function of ignorance – most who comment on volatility don’t understand what it means. Defined simply volatility is the…
This is a little quiz. Below is a simple weekly chart of NVDA with a 30-period moving average plotted. Moving averages are simple but effective tools for defining the underlying trend of an instrument. The question is can you spot those times when you should be a buyer of NVDA? If you can you are a…
The modern world is full of risks, from natural hazards such as flooding to the existential threat of nuclear war, artificial intelligence and climate change. With the scientific and technological progress of the past few centuries, we’ve created new hazards that threaten our very survival and, in this series, emergency planner and disaster recovery expert…
ASX listings are in a slow but structural decline. In the 10 years to December 2024, the number of ASX-listed equities (domestic and foreign) fell by 4 per cent, from 2073 to 1989. September 2024 marked the first time in 20 years that the total number of ASX-listed equities fell below 2000. Although 67 new…
It is that time of year when traders evaluate their performance in the previous year. In this video, I follow up on a video I posted in early 2024 that cast an eye over the less than stellar performance of one of my shorter-term systems. I look at what worked, what didn’t, and more importantly,…
There has never been a better time to be an investor. We have unprecedented choice, transparency and control. There has also never been a worse time to be an investor. We have unprecedented choice, transparency and control. More here – The Behavioural Investor
As the New Year rolls around the media is once again awash with its annual range of predictions for the year ahead. Despite their complete inaccuracy predictions are unfortunately a dominant art of the economic landscape. This raises the question of why people make predictions even though they know they will be wrong and…
The psychology underlining all high-performance endeavours is universal, and as such, the broad principles can be translated across fields. A recent meta-analysis on the impact of goal setting on performance found the following to be true. Process related goals had a large impact on outcomes. In the trading arena, this would relate to the goal…
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