Do Any Economists Have Superior Forecasting Skills?

Quick answer … No To answer this question, we develop new testing methods for identifying superior forecasting skills in settings with arbitrarily many forecasters, outcome variables, and time periods. Our methods allow us to address if any economists had superior forecasting skills for any variables or at any point in time while carefully controlling for…

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There Is No Magic

Humans are drawn to magical thinking for a variety of reasons, in part, it gives order to where there is chaos and we are very poor at sitting with chaos. It also separates us from others so our belief in our form of magic is a form of tribalism – we have access to an…

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Jim Simons: The man who solved the market

David Bailey does a good job of summarising Simons remarkable career. Simons’ background hardly suggested that he would one day lead one of the most successful, if not the most successful, quantitative hedge fund operation in the world. Born in 1938 to a Jewish family that operated a small shoe factory, Simons aspired very early…

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Sell the NASDAQ and Buy Gold

I love a good conspiracy theory. In the long history of governments and central banks deceiving the people, August 15 1971 was just another date in the calendar. Throughout history, the ruling elite has always cheated the people. But the leaders’ irresponsible actions are always revealed as in the end they always fail. Still, in…

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Not All Negative Emotions Are Problems

I recently spoke with an experienced, insightful trader who was experiencing performance anxiety.  He was so concerned with losing money that he failed to follow his own rules regarding entering positions, taking profits, etc.  As a result, he chronically felt frustrated, because his ideas were good, but his trading was mediocre. More here – TraderFeed

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How to Overcome Your Fear of Failure

A client (who I’ll call “Alex”) asked me to help him prepare to interview for a CEO role with a start-up. It was the first time he had interviewed for the C-level, and when we met, he was visibly agitated. I asked what was wrong, and he explained that he felt “paralyzed” by his fear…

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Bruce Lee on Self-Actualization and the Crucial Difference Between Pride and Self-Esteem

“Real self-esteem is an integration of an inner value with things in the world around you,” Anna Deavere Smith wrote in her invaluable advice to young artists. But how does one master the intricacies of that integration? That’s what legendary Chinese-American martial artist, philosopher, and filmmaker Bruce Lee (November 27, 1940–July 20, 1973) explores in one of the pieces…

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