Dow – Update

Price is still meandering around the initial fail point. One of the mistakes I see traders make is that they see a chart like the one below and instantly drop into confirmation bias mode simply because price looks as if it might be moving higher. Current price action doesn’t really confirm whether this trade is…

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So first the disclaimer – I am actually long the Dow. As per the chart below my system generated a signal where the purple arrow is an I entered on a contingent order a little higher than that. This all occurred whilst I was asleep a few days ago. When the system generated the signal…

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John Henry Shuts Up Shop

It was recently announced that one of the pioneers of managed futures John W Henry was shutting up shop after several difficult years in which his funds under management shrank from $2.5 billion in 2006 to around a $100 million. This made me wonder two things. Firstly, is there a shelf life to money managers.?…

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The Myth of American Meritocracy

Lately I have had a bit of waiting time and I was able to read this article in full. Of the entire piece I found the passage below the most disturbing. As a history buff I am familiar with such behaviour in the old Soviet Union and Germany in the 1930’s where admission to schools…

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We Are Alive

Rock tours generally have a theme: a band’s coltish arrival, a new style or look, a reunion, a new set of songs, a political moment. Springsteen was salting the show with the political material from “Wrecking Ball,” but the most vivid theme on this tour was to be time passing, age, death, and, if Springsteen…

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Two Surprisingly Related Items

Below is a table I lifted from Bespoke Investment It shows the YTD performance of what could be called analyst’s least loved stocks. You will note that some performed quite poorly but the top five had an average return of about 71% with WHR returning 104.34% The second of my related items is titled simply…

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How To Win At Forecasting

I have done prediction to death (see here) The patron saint of pointing out that experts don’t have clue is Philip Tetlock. This is an extended piece and video with him. It takes a bit to get through but the central message is that models beat experts as evidenced in the recent US election. The…

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