Johnson is very good at gambling, mainly because he’s less willing to gamble than most. He does not just walk into a casino and start playing, which is what roughly 99 percent of customers do. This is, in his words, tantamount to “blindly throwing away money.” The rules of the game are set to give…

Henry Rollins letter to a young American

An odd little paper that someone obviously got a grant for. The Pitch Rather than the Pit: Investor Inattention During FIFA World Cup Matches At the 2010 FIFA World Cup in South Africa, many soccer matches were played during stock market trading hours, providing us with a natural experiment to analyze fluctuations in investor attention.…

How true is this……..

I have written about prediction a few times in the past – the main thrust of my argument is that it is – 1. Pointless 2. Experts dont have a friggen clue This is a nice little podcast on Philip Tetlock one of the driving forces behind the pointlessness of experts philosophy. So Tetlock took…

I have been pondering the psychological utility of things such as playing the lottery. I fully accept that the odds against winning are astronomical and are as follows –   Tattslotto      1 in 8,145,060 Oz Lotto         1 in 45,379,620 Powerball       1 in 54,979,155 Now balance these…