LATEST BLOGS

Crypto Crash

I found this neat little chart on the total market cap of all crypto currencies. Since January the market has lost about $584B. So much for replacing money as we know it. The only similarity between cryptocurrencies and money as it is currency defined is that the saying a fool and his money are soon…

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Shanghai Composite

Apparently according to financial journalists the Shanghai Composite is now officially in a bear market because it has fallen the mandatory 20%. I do wish they would pay attention to what is actually happening. The first chart below shows my usual value of $1 invested i the index. As you can see the glory days…

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Fredkins Paradox

Trading is a decision making profession – every day traders are forced to make decisions. We either have to choose between instruments we are going to trade or simply choose not to trade at all. Its quite a simple binary profession  that is hopefully  governed by some form of structure that guides your decision making…

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Predicting the failures of prediction markets

Abstract Prediction markets have been an important source of information for decision makers due to their high ex post accuracies. Nevertheless, recent failures of prediction markets remind us of the importance of ex ante assessments of their prediction accuracy. This paper proposes a systematic procedure for decision makers to acquire prediction models which may be used…

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Detoxing is Bullshit

Scientifically speaking, “detoxing” isn’t a thing. Your body doesn’t retain so-called toxins ingested via food or drugs or plastic dishes, or breathed in through air. You don’t sweat them out at yoga, get rid of them via special massage, or purge them through colonics. As writer Dara Mohammadi put it in a scorching takedown of the dominant wellness watchword…

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Ethical Investing

Lately my junk mail inbox has been inundated with bits and pieces regarding ethical investment. Every now and again it seems if the investing community goes on a bit of a tear and everybody plays follow the leader. Much of what I have been receiving is based upon a paper from last year – Foundations…

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