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Feeling Lucky?

IN 2004, A LUCKY SINGLE mother won $10.5 million in the Ontario lottery. Her name was Candy Adams. What did that windfall do for her life, her goals and her values? Surely she parlayed that into incredible success? Well… no. After becoming a millionaire overnight, she spent all that lovely money on designer clothes, parties,…

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Family Descent as a Signal of Managerial Quality

Long story made short – fund managers from poor backgrounds make better fund managers than those from wealthy backgrounds. Which does make sense when you think about it not only in terms of drive and the will to succeed without a safety net but also a greater understanding of the need to husband resource. Abstract…

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Crypto Crash

I found this neat little chart on the total market cap of all crypto currencies. Since January the market has lost about $584B. So much for replacing money as we know it. The only similarity between cryptocurrencies and money as it is currency defined is that the saying a fool and his money are soon…

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Shanghai Composite

Apparently according to financial journalists the Shanghai Composite is now officially in a bear market because it has fallen the mandatory 20%. I do wish they would pay attention to what is actually happening. The first chart below shows my usual value of $1 invested i the index. As you can see the glory days…

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Fredkins Paradox

Trading is a decision making profession – every day traders are forced to make decisions. We either have to choose between instruments we are going to trade or simply choose not to trade at all. Its quite a simple binary profession  that is hopefully  governed by some form of structure that guides your decision making…

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Predicting the failures of prediction markets

Abstract Prediction markets have been an important source of information for decision makers due to their high ex post accuracies. Nevertheless, recent failures of prediction markets remind us of the importance of ex ante assessments of their prediction accuracy. This paper proposes a systematic procedure for decision makers to acquire prediction models which may be used…

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Detoxing is Bullshit

Scientifically speaking, “detoxing” isn’t a thing. Your body doesn’t retain so-called toxins ingested via food or drugs or plastic dishes, or breathed in through air. You don’t sweat them out at yoga, get rid of them via special massage, or purge them through colonics. As writer Dara Mohammadi put it in a scorching takedown of the dominant wellness watchword…

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Round Number Price Barriers in U.S. Stock Market

Abstract This paper examines the existence of round number price barriers in the U.S. stock market. I show that stock prices clusters around multiples of $10 as a result of the price barriers. The price barriers results in abnormal future return pattern; a long-short portfolio formed around the barrier held for a week produces 17…

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