After Russia rolled tanks and troops into Ukraine, markets sold off—for half a day. S&P 500 futures tumbled overnight, but by 2:30 p.m. in New York on Feb. 24, the S&P 500 was higher than before military action began. While there’s been volatility, U.S. equities as of March 1 were still up since before the…
There are undoubtedly countless investors nursing losses because of a choice made in recent years to abandon value-oriented strategies to fully commit to the rapidly accelerating growth bandwagon. Although the brutal reversal in the more speculative end of the growth universe can be read as a salutary lesson on style and factor rotations, it is…
I know staggeringly little about the economics of agriculture which is why I found this Twitter thread so interesting. More wheat stats. My personal favorite Misleading Wheat Stat is “Ukraine/Russia grow 25% of world wheat exports.” Why’s it misleading? It’s technically true, but doesn’t mean what people think! Missing wheat from the war is actually…
PS: This podcast makes some very interesting points regarding the psychology of speculative tools such as crypto and NFT’S.What is particularly insightful is the notion that trading in these instruments is not necessarily about any form of economic utility but is rather a form of signaling between young men.
On my social media feeds, I have a number of people who class themselves as trading psychologists. That is individuals who purport to have particular expertise in the field of trading psychology. My expectation would be that these people’s feeds would be full of advice on things such as building resilience, coping with losses, understanding…
Our fascination with forecasts about short-term market movements is a puzzling trait.* Investors continue to make market predictions even though we are consistently wrongfooted. When other people make an incorrect forecast, we don’t disregard what they tell us next but instead say to them: “you were entirely wrong before, what do you think will happen…
The chart below shows that the current drawdown on the S&P/ASX200 is 7.74% – the way it is being portrayed in the media you might think it was actually down 77.4%.
PS:If you are like me and long the energy complex beware of confirmation bias in this otherwise excellent overview.
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