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If I remember correctly Robert Prechter was once quoted as saying the Dow was going to 100 points. I must have missed it if it did. The issue here is that if you are constantly bearish and calling the end of the world sooner or later you will be right. Its a bit like being…
This article popped into my inbox this morning – Where the Black Swans Hide & the 10 Best Days Myth Here is the abstract – Below we examine market outliers in financial markets. How much effect do these outliers have on long term performance? Can the investor prepare for these anomalies, or are they truly…
With markets running nicely it might be time to revisit an old paper I have mentioned before called “Do investors behave like lemmings?” by Professors Richard Dale and Johnie Johnson* and Dr Leilei Tang. To which my immediate response was thank you for stating the bleeding obvious – next monkey and organ grinder please. The…
People may have outrage fatigue about Wall Street, and more stories about billionaire greedheads getting away with more stealing often cease to amaze. But the HSBC case went miles beyond the usual paper-pushing, keypad-punching sort-of crime, committed by geeks in ties, normally associated with Wall Street. In this case, the bank literally got away with…
I was reading this article by Michael Lewis when I came across this quote talking about Britain in the early 1980’s – Nothing functioned properly; everything that wasn’t broken was about to fall apart. The food was almost deliberately inedible, an inside joke cooked up by the locals to see what human beings would willingly…
I recently came across this paper Complex Dynamics in Learning Complicated Games which looks at why some games are easy to master whereas some harder skill based games such as Go or chess are much harder to master. In simple games with a limited number of moves the most effective strategy is fairly easy to…
One of the drawbacks of trading as a profession is that you can inadvertently spend a lot of time sitting on your arse. Unfortunately, the health impacts of being sedentary are just being explored. I cam across this article which looks at the health benefits of various forms of exercise intensity. I always caution against…
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