If to enjoy even an enjoyable present we must have the assurance of a happy future, we are “crying for the moon.” We have no such assurance. The best predictions are still matters of probability rather than certainty, and to the best of our knowledge every one of us is going to suffer and die.…
I was going through my article archive and came across this old study that I hadn’t read in a long time which is a pity since it neatly encapsulates almost everything most traders do wrong. I have highlighted the bits that I think are important. He is both an aggressive investor and an active gambler.…
In the little excursion I had into the notion of the market being overvalued I visited the idea of the percentage of stocks above certain moving average being a sign of the market being overheated. The thinking behind this is that if a substantial number of stocks are above a given moving average then this…
This is a curious little malady that makes you believe that you are much better at a task than you actually are but you lack the either cognitive power or self perception to realise how bad you are. Consider of the HRF Hedge Fund Index versus the S&P500. As you can see a simple index…
I subscribe to an online newsletter All About Alpha that looks at alternative investment and like most of these online newsletters they seem to be cheerleaders for the hedge fund sector. So it was with some interest that I scanned the article 10 Top Hedge Fund Industry Trends for 2014 – interestingly not one of the…
Consider the chart below. Leaving aside my thoughts about organic food the chart deliberately confuses causation with correlation. Such confusion is the bane of statistician lives and it plays a role in our investing since in many ways it is the bedrock upon which people build their stories or rationalisations about he market. During…
If you are struggling to find metals prices, particularly some of the more obscure ones such as cobalt, magnesium and molybdenum check out InvestmentMine – it has a good collection of free charts and prices.
I have always been a fan of Muay Thai both as spectator sport and an endevour. It seems odd to say but there is something quintessentially Thai and Muay Thai – it is such a reflection of the people and so deeply engrained in their national psyche. Attending a Muay Thai fight in Thailand should…
Confirmation is an insidious little malady that afflicts everyone at some stage. Our natural desire as members of a herd is to find people who agree with our point of view. In trading this takes the extreme form of overweighting opinions that match ours and underweighting those that disagree with us. The natural tendency when…
Freakanomics is one of my go to podcasts whilst exercising. This episode looks at how to use evidence based data to help with poverty.
I have to admit that over the past few years I have found the performance of the local market to suck big time. I am somewhat comforted by two things. I am not alone and the internet grants me access to every market in the world. If you want to know how poor the local…
One of the more interesting things about winter in Australia is the return of the various winter sporting codes. This is interesting because it heralds the return of the uniquely Australian obsession with provincial sports and a breathless sporting coverage that attempts to give the impression that people who kick or chase an inflated piece…
