If to enjoy even an enjoyable present we must have the assurance of a happy future, we are “crying for the moon.” We have no such assurance. The best predictions are still matters of probability rather than certainty, and to the best of our knowledge every one of us is going to suffer and die.…
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I was going through my article archive and came across this old study that I hadn’t read in a long time which is a pity since it neatly encapsulates almost everything most traders do wrong. I have highlighted the bits that I think are important. He is both an aggressive investor and an active gambler.…
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In the little excursion I had into the notion of the market being overvalued I visited the idea of the percentage of stocks above certain moving average being a sign of the market being overheated. The thinking behind this is that if a substantial number of stocks are above a given moving average then this…
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This is a curious little malady that makes you believe that you are much better at a task than you actually are but you lack the either cognitive power or self perception to realise how bad you are. Consider of the HRF Hedge Fund Index versus the S&P500. As you can see a simple index…
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I subscribe to an online newsletter All About Alpha that looks at alternative investment and like most of these online newsletters they seem to be cheerleaders for the hedge fund sector. So it was with some interest that I scanned the article 10 Top Hedge Fund Industry Trends for 2014 – interestingly not one of the…
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Consider the chart below. Leaving aside my thoughts about organic food the chart deliberately confuses causation with correlation. Such confusion is the bane of statistician lives and it plays a role in our investing since in many ways it is the bedrock upon which people build their stories or rationalisations about he market. During…
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