The chart below is currently doing the rounds. It is from JP Morgans Guide to Retirement and it is being repeated without critical comment over various sites. It offers the standard line of the need to be fully invested in markets all the time because if you are not fully invested then you miss the best…
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Throughout the late 1960’s and early 1970’s Stanford psychologist Walter Mischel conducted what became known as the marshmallow tests. This test looked at the phenomena of delayed gratification in children. as part of the testing protocol children were offered either a small reward immediately or a larger reward if they waited 15 minutes. Interestingly…
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In 1999, in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, my then graduate student Justin Kruger and I published a paper that documented how, in many areas of life, incompetent people do not recognize—scratch that, cannot recognize—just how incompetent they are, a phenomenon that has come to be known as the Dunning-Kruger effect. Logic itself almost demands…
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One of the great failings of fundamental analysis is its reliance upon the narrative as its means of communication. Brokers will often ask analysts – whats the story? Meaning how can I sell this to the client. We are hardwired for narrative rather than data and this causes us enormnous problems in everything from dealing…
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I have clearly been exercising incorrectly my entire life. Hang around till the one minute mark……
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