Panic is an overwhelming feeling of fear that can dominate our decision making. It typically begins with a significant and sudden change in circumstance. The outbreak of coronavirus has provided numerous examples of decisions that are seemingly fuelled by stress and uncertainty; from the bizarre stockpiling of toilet paper to the dramatic daily moves in…Details
All of the idiocy I have seen regarding when it might be time to buy prompted me to do a presentation for our Boardroomers but I thought the last slide in the presentation summed up a good part of my thinking.
Trading is a strange profession in that almost all of the traditions, habits and culture surrounding it are unique to the trader. You are free to make up your own beliefs and methods and unleash them upon the market. The end result of this is that most people go off half-cocked. You only have to…Details
The other day I posted this equity curve that had appeared on social media. This curve is clearly fake because it resembles the climb profile of a QANTAS 737 leaving Melbourne on its way to Sydney – that and the fact that it claims a 97% win rate. Real equity curves display volatility as wins…Details
You have to have some sympathy for those strategists working at asset managers and investment banks who spent the tail end of last year writing lengthy outlook pieces for 2020. Although the tomes produced always have an inbuilt redundancy; the onset and spread of coronavirus (COVID-19) has upended all forecasts in a particularly dramatic and…Details
I noticed the following headline whilst having brekky at my local. You can read the original piece here in the Melbourne Age. Unfortunately, I would consider most of it wrong since the way you tell when markets have bottomed is to open a chart and look back six months and go….there’s the bottom. The only…Details