Now that the Bogan 1000 has been run at Bathurst for another year I note that there was much weeping and wailing at the imminent demise of Ford which is soon to be followed by the end of locally produced Holden’s. This gnashing of teeth was echoed by the car magazines I subscribe to which…
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There are many ways to rank universities, but one that’s rarely considered is how many of their graduates make extraordinary contributions to society. A new analysis does just that, ranking institutions by the proportion of their undergraduates that go on to win a Nobel prize. Two schools dominate the rankings: École Normale Supérieure (ENS) in…
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ARE you intelligent — or rational? The question may sound redundant, but in recent years researchers have demonstrated just how distinct those two cognitive attributes actually are. It all started in the early 1970s, when the psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky conducted an influential series of experiments showing that all of us, even highly…
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The most interesting thing to happen in markets for sometime was the GBP flash crash that occurred last week. I only caught the tail end of the crash as I saw some of my GBP puts leap ten fold in value and then settle back down. Which was followed by me going WTF? was that…
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In trading we have a concept known as alpha – that is the measure of skill we bring to the investment process as measured by comparison to a given benchmark. Traditionally we think of generating alpha via our instrument selection or timing. The aim of being a trend follower or momentum trader is to buy…
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This is the best explanation of why trends occur and persist that I have seen.
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1. “There’s a quick and easy way to test whether an activity involves skill: ask whether you can lose on purpose. In games of skill, it’s clear that you can lose intentionally, but when playing roulette or the lottery you can’t lose on purpose.” 2. “Much of what we experience in life results from a…
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One of the mechanisms by which I have learnt to deal with the vicissitudes of the market is to believe that they are actually very generous and that they will tell me everything I need to know if I just listen. When I have gone back and reviewed errors in judgement I have made as…
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