Bayes and Deadweight

The quality of your life will, to a large extent, be decided by whom you elect to spend your time with. Supportive, caring, and funny are great attributes in friends and lovers. Unceasingly negative cynics who chip away at your self-esteem? We need to jettison those people as far and fast as we can. The problem is, how do we…

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Do Alpha Males Deliver Alpha?

Apparently not… Abstract Using facial width-to-height ratio (fWHR) as a proxy for testosterone, we show that high-testosterone hedge fund managers significantly underperform low-testosterone hedge fund managers after adjusting for risk. Moreover, high-testosterone managers are more likely to terminate their funds, disclose violations on their Form ADVs, and display greater operational risk. We trace the underperformance…

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Reading Between the Lines

Technical analysis involves using historical price and volume data to predict market movements. It can be applied in markets ranging from wheat to the latest speculative craze, cryptocurrencies. One Bitcoin pundit, for example, recently discussed the appearance of an “inverse head and shoulder breakout” after the digital currency surged 10% within 24 hours, claiming that “…BTC is trading well…

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