Well…….its the 21/12/12 and I am still here. Although I havent checked to see if I am here by myself yet…. In the spirit of such things I give you two sets of predictions. 1. Those dickhead Mayans who couldnt even foresee the coming of the Spanish – bit of bad luck there 2. A…
Quick, think back to a major decision. You know, the kind that compelled you to read everything on a topic and lead you to spend hours devouring every last scrap of data. How’d that work out for you? We like to think that more information drives smarter decisions; that the more details we absorb, the…
Below is a table I lifted from Bespoke Investment It shows the YTD performance of what could be called analyst’s least loved stocks. You will note that some performed quite poorly but the top five had an average return of about 71% with WHR returning 104.34% The second of my related items is titled simply…
I have done prediction to death (see here) The patron saint of pointing out that experts don’t have clue is Philip Tetlock. This is an extended piece and video with him. It takes a bit to get through but the central message is that models beat experts as evidenced in the recent US election. The…
Some additional references – Yachtman Bets BlackBerry Can Survive Market-Share Plunge RIMS Market Share Slips Some More The New Blackberry Debacle Worldwide Market Share For Smartphones
I must admit having fun with value investors is a somewhat akin to shooting fish in a barrel The hubris required to believe that you and you alone actually know what something is worth and that the market will believe you is extraordinary. Consider the case of HP’s acquisition of software maker Autonomy, they thought…
The graphic below is from Thomson Reuters – the original can be found here This is a weekly chart of gold – Take your pick as to which one makes sense to base a decision on…….
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