An astonishing record – of complete failure

In the 2001 issue of the International Journal of Forecasting, an economist from the International Monetary Fund, Prakash Loungani, published a survey of the accuracy of economic forecasts throughout the 1990s. He reached two conclusions. The first was that forecasts are all much the same. There was little to choose between those produced by the…

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Patience

When novice traders enter the world of trading they are bombarded by all sorts of rubbish about what to do and how to do it. Unfortunately, very little of this material covers what is actually important and none of it seems to mention the words courage and patience. I have spoken about the notion of…

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