Adam Robinson: Right. It’s so funny you should ask that, because people think stupidity is the opposite of intelligence. In fact, stupidity is the cost of intelligence operating in a complex environment. It’s almost inevitable. And so I was asked by an organizer of an investment conference in the Bahamas of some elite global investors…
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Confirmation bias is our tendency to cherry-pick information that confirms our existing beliefs or ideas. Confirmation bias explains why two people with opposing views on a topic can see the same evidence and come away feeling validated by it. This cognitive bias is most pronounced in the case of ingrained, ideological, or emotionally charged views.…
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Whilst having lunch this headline from the Melbourne Age lobbed onto my screen. I was going to write a piece on narrative fallacies, false beliefs, postdictive errors, and general incompetence. You know all the usual stuff I go on about when I play whack-a-mole with analysts heads but I decided to opt for the old…
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Few will have the greatness to bend history itself, but each of us can work to change a small portion of events. It is from numberless diverse acts of courage and belief that human history is shaped. Each time a man stands up for an ideal, or acts to improve the lot of others, or…
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In the South Seas there is a Cargo Cult of people. During the war they saw airplanes land with lots of good materials, and they want the same thing to happen now. So they’ve arranged to make things like runways, to put fires along the sides of the runways, to make a wooden hut for…
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Trading is a profession of uncertainty – the window into tomorrow is opaque as such our decisions are merely bets made on a series of potential outcomes. This uncertainty is essential since it brings the potential for profit, if there is no uncertainty then there is no chance of profit. Claims of no risk trades…
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As you know I am a bit of a fan of people lifting really heavy things – the Worlds Strongest Man Competition is compulsory viewing in my house. Who doesn’t love a sport that has the worlds lowest participation rate but also the worlds highest injury rate? Over the weekend an Icelandic giant who has…
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I was wrong…..this is actually trading in the time of Covid-19
Wouldn’t it be great if there was a technique that would allow us to vanquish fear and beat back stress? There just might be. In his latest book, The Wedge, bestselling author Scott Carney explains that when humans face challenging situations, our automatic responses tend to make us feel terrible. But the good news is that there are…
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