It is now nearly two years since events conspired in such a way as to send bushfires of unparalleled size and ferocity across Victoria. The time between then and now has been spent dissecting why the fires were so bad, our response so inadequate and how to avoid such an occurrence in the future. To…
Apparently when they get it wrong stock analysts stamp their feet and threaten to hold their breath until they turn blue STANFORD GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS — Like oracles in the stock market, securities analysts come up with earnings estimates that are supposed to signal the worth of a company’s stock. But what happens when…
Apparently when they get it wrong stock analysts stamp their feet and threaten to hold their breath until they turn blue STANFORD GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS — Like oracles in the stock market, securities analysts come up with earnings estimates that are supposed to signal the worth of a company’s stock. But what happens when…
The ever interesting and insightful Tim Hartford makes mention of the illusion of understanding complex systems in his latest blog. Switch on any business TV channel and you’ll be bombarded with scrolling quotes and jagged graphs. It’s all very well if you like to watch that kind of thing, but the flow of financial data…
The ever interesting and insightful Tim Hartford makes mention of the illusion of understanding complex systems in his latest blog. Switch on any business TV channel and you’ll be bombarded with scrolling quotes and jagged graphs. It’s all very well if you like to watch that kind of thing, but the flow of financial data…
This is probably quite topical given the developments of the past few days. BRADLEY ALFORD, a money manager in Atlanta, just hit the panic button. No, really. Mr. Alford just hit the key on his computer that initiates the Wall Street equivalent of the nuclear option: Sell everything. He was acting on orders from two…
This is probably quite topical given the developments of the past few days. BRADLEY ALFORD, a money manager in Atlanta, just hit the panic button. No, really. Mr. Alford just hit the key on his computer that initiates the Wall Street equivalent of the nuclear option: Sell everything. He was acting on orders from two…
Interesting piece on the evolution of overconfidence Confidence is an essential ingredient of success in a wide range of domains ranging from job performance and mental health, to sports, business, and combat. Some authors have suggested that not just confidence but overconfidence-believing you are better than you are in reality-is advantageous because it serves to…
Following on from this post – Freakanomics Radio has an hour long special on the pointlessness of predictions. It’s impossible to predict the future, but humans can’t help themselves. From the economy to the presidency to the Super Bowl, educated and intelligent people promise insight and repeatedly fail by wide margins. These mistakes and misses…
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