No financial condition is permanent unless you give it permission. Just what have you given permission to in your life that has taken hold? Might be time to re-assess… I’ve been through a few wipe-outs in my life. I was wiped out emotionally when I didn’t get into the University course I craved. I had…
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The Long Now Foundation’s monthly Seminars About Long-term Thinking were started in 2003 to build a compelling body of ideas about long-term thinking; to help nudge civilization toward our goal of making long-term thinking automatic and common instead of difficult and rare. Click player image.
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The long knives have been out for TED Talks for some time. Benjamin Bratton called them “middlebrow megachurch infotainment.”Evegny Morozov called the TED publishing arm the “insatiable kingpin of international meme laundering.” The gist of these arguments is that TED Talks are vapid, culty mass-selfies that fetishize technology for every solution. It is “placebo science” meant to…
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If to enjoy even an enjoyable present we must have the assurance of a happy future, we are “crying for the moon.” We have no such assurance. The best predictions are still matters of probability rather than certainty, and to the best of our knowledge every one of us is going to suffer and die.…
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I was going through my article archive and came across this old study that I hadn’t read in a long time which is a pity since it neatly encapsulates almost everything most traders do wrong. I have highlighted the bits that I think are important. He is both an aggressive investor and an active gambler.…
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This is a curious little malady that makes you believe that you are much better at a task than you actually are but you lack the either cognitive power or self perception to realise how bad you are. Consider of the HRF Hedge Fund Index versus the S&P500. As you can see a simple index…
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Consider the chart below. Leaving aside my thoughts about organic food the chart deliberately confuses causation with correlation. Such confusion is the bane of statistician lives and it plays a role in our investing since in many ways it is the bedrock upon which people build their stories or rationalisations about he market. During…
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Confirmation is an insidious little malady that afflicts everyone at some stage. Our natural desire as members of a herd is to find people who agree with our point of view. In trading this takes the extreme form of overweighting opinions that match ours and underweighting those that disagree with us. The natural tendency when…
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One of the more interesting things about winter in Australia is the return of the various winter sporting codes. This is interesting because it heralds the return of the uniquely Australian obsession with provincial sports and a breathless sporting coverage that attempts to give the impression that people who kick or chase an inflated piece…
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