Love A Good Prediction
I love predictions.
Is The Market Overvalued?
This is a question that tends to get posed at boardrooms and dinner parties any time the market has had an extended run. Whenever, someone poses this question to me, my immediate and somewhat flippant answer is don’t know and don’t care. My response is based upon the notion that I feel it is the…
Details
How Our Minds Mislead Us: The Marvels and Flaws of Our Intuition
Excellent little piece on how our brain tricks us repeatedly. If you want to characterize how something is done, then one of the most powerful ways of characterizing how the mind does anything is by looking at the errors that the mind produces while it’s doing it because the errors tell you what it is…
Details
Interview With Richard Thaler
We are rational, self-interested optimizers: Homo economicus. So the neoclassical model of economics has held for over a century. It has been a fruitful model, at the heart of the discipline’s most profound theories, predictions and policy prescriptions. According to Richard Thaler, it is also flawed. Humans in the real world, Thaler points out, behave…
Details
Do Investors Have Too Much Information?
This is the title of a CNN Money article. The issue is in many ways hidden by the title and the accepted belief that we live in an era where information overload is the default setting for any and all activities. Undoubtedly information overload is an issue for traders. This is a natural consequence of…
Details
Does Studying Economics Make You A Bad Person
Whilst my views on Economics as a pseudoscience are well known I am not certain about this piece in Psychology Today In 1776, Adam Smith famously wrote: “It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker, that we can expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own…
Details
Fear And The Art Of Trading
Trading or investing (I use the terms interchangeably) is at its core an information processing profession. The job of a trader is to take the information they receive and distil it into a cohesive, coherent format from which they can derive a decision. The expected end point of this decision is that the trade that…
Details
Why It’s Impossible To Just Eat Less
This is a fascinating article in that you can take out the references to food and eating less and substitute the expression – why is is impossible to follow a trading plan. Long-term multicomponent weight management interventions were generally shown to promote weight loss in overweight or obese adults. Weight changes were small however and…
Details
