Jim Rogers

“Most of us don’t have the discipline to stay focused on a single goal for five, ten, or twenty years, giving up everything to bring it off, but that’s what’s necessary to become an Olympic champion, a world class surgeon, or a Kirov ballerina. Even then, of course, it may be all in vain. You…

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Prediction

I have written about prediction a few times in the past – the main thrust of my argument is that it is – 1. Pointless 2. Experts dont have a friggen clue This is a nice little podcast on Philip Tetlock one of the driving forces behind the pointlessness of experts philosophy. So Tetlock took…

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Dreaming

I have been pondering the psychological utility of things such as playing the lottery. I fully accept that the odds against winning are astronomical and are as follows –   Tattslotto      1 in 8,145,060 Oz Lotto         1 in 45,379,620 Powerball       1 in 54,979,155 Now balance these…

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