How Much Conviction Do You Hold in Your Investment Views?

I recently read War and Chance by Jeffrey A. Friedman, which considers how foreign policy specialists deal with the uncertainty that surrounds their high stakes decisions.  Friedman focuses on an historic reticence to explicitly discuss either probabilities or confidence levels when making subjective judgements.  Whilst the impact of decisions made around the whereabouts of Osama bin Laden…

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You Are Doing It Wrong

In presentations regarding trading psychology and why traders find it so hard to be profitable, I often refer to a paper titled An analysis of the profiles and motivations of habitual commodity speculators by W. Bruce Canoles, Sarahelen Thompson, Scott Irwin Virginia, Grace France (Journal of Futures Markets Volume 18 Issue 7 October 1998) This…

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