My Prediction For 2013
Some prices will go up, some will go down and a few will go sideways…..there ya go get to it….
The Mayans Cocked It Up….
The Economist has put together a timely guide to all those idiots who predicted the end of the world. As you can see the tradition of being a dickhead is long and proud,,,,,,,
DetailsOne Of These Things Is Just Like The Other
Well…….its the 21/12/12 and I am still here. Although I havent checked to see if I am here by myself yet…. In the spirit of such things I give you two sets of predictions. 1. Those dickhead Mayans who couldnt even foresee the coming of the Spanish – bit of bad luck there 2. A…
DetailsDaniel Kahneman
Having started rereading parts of Thinking Fast and Slow I thought it was worth revisiting this
Why Too Much Data Disables Your Decision Making
Quick, think back to a major decision. You know, the kind that compelled you to read everything on a topic and lead you to spend hours devouring every last scrap of data. How’d that work out for you? We like to think that more information drives smarter decisions; that the more details we absorb, the…
DetailsTwo Surprisingly Related Items
Below is a table I lifted from Bespoke Investment It shows the YTD performance of what could be called analyst’s least loved stocks. You will note that some performed quite poorly but the top five had an average return of about 71% with WHR returning 104.34% The second of my related items is titled simply…
DetailsHow To Win At Forecasting
I have done prediction to death (see here) The patron saint of pointing out that experts don’t have clue is Philip Tetlock. This is an extended piece and video with him. It takes a bit to get through but the central message is that models beat experts as evidenced in the recent US election. The…
DetailsTen Minutes With Tate – The Narrative Fallacy
Some additional references – Yachtman Bets BlackBerry Can Survive Market-Share Plunge RIMS Market Share Slips Some More The New Blackberry Debacle Worldwide Market Share For Smartphones
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