This is a chart of investor sentiment as produced by the American Association of Individual Investors. Each week the association polls its members with the question where do you feel the stockmarket will be in the next six months. The results are tallied to give a percentage bullish, bearish or undecided. These sorts of metrics…
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In somewhat of a similar vein to the post on scary charts I came across this piece yesterday – For the past 40-50 yrs, those years ended with “7?” always spell trouble. 1977? – International Currency Crisis 1987?- Oct 19 Black Monday Crash 1997?- Asia Financial Crisis 2007?- US sub-prime Crisis 2017? – ? There…
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Every once in a while, a friend attends therapy for the first time and starts breathlessly reporting all the revelations she’s learned. In many of these circumstances, it’s all I can do to stop myself from yelling that I, or any of her other friends, could just as easily have told her these same “discoveries.”…
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….The theory of cognitive dissonance—the extreme discomfort of simultaneously holding two thoughts that are in conflict—was developed by the social psychologist Leon Festinger in the 1950s. In a famous study, Festinger and his colleagues embedded themselves with a doomsday prophet named Dorothy Martin and her cult of followers who believed that spacemen called the Guardians…
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Losing money is one of the loneliest feelings. It was Oct 22nd, 2008. Lehman Brothers, the investment bank, had filed for bankruptcy the month before. The markets were panicking. A thousand people surrounded me, almost all of us slouched in our seats, staring at computer screens. I had eight, all flashing prices of assets that…
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In 2009, shortly after the global markets had suffered their worst crisis for 90 years, Alexis Stenfors was working as a currency trader for Merrill Lynch in London. With 15 years’ experience, he was good at his job and he prided himself on his ability to read the markets. His view was that the whole…
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Last week I posted this interview with NBA star LeBron James. James describes how at the age of 18 whilst living in both obscurity and poverty he made the very mature commercial decision to knock back a $10 million contract from Reebok – this contract whilst extraordinarily generous for someone who had never played professional…
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When mulling over possible reasons for the alarming nastiness associated with the recent presidential election in the United States, I am reminded of my grade-school bully. Handsome, often charming, superbly athletic, the bully (let’s call him Mike) would frequently, usually without clear provocation, kick, punch and shove other classmates. Fortunately, for reasons not apparent at…
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