LB and I have just wrapped up the final in our series on full time trading. For the most part they have been enjoyable except for one twat who complained that it was unprofessional of LB to not present when she was suffering from severe laryngitis. Presenting for the first time in years is an…
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We are approaching the ten year anniversary of the implosion of Lehman Brothers and the subsequent meltdown in the financial system that precipitated the GFC. As always it is instructive to look back in history and see what lessons can be learned. Although I will offer a spoiler – there is nothing new to be…
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It may sound weird but I really like playing with software that simulates distributions – it probably comes from when I had a semester free at Uni and simply took subjects that looked interesting. One of the ones I dropped into was Mathematical Ecology which is largely the mathematics of natural distributions. I found it…
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More here – @PeterLBrandt
In July 1838, Charles Darwin, then 29, sat down to make a decision that would alter the course of his life. The decision he was wrestling with was not related to scientific questions about the origins of species. It was a different kind of decision — existential as well, but of a more personal nature:…
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For more than a quarter century, Wall Street analyst Mike Mayo has danced to the steady beat of corporate America. His work habits, his family events, his social life, even his workouts and vacations — all have been dictated by the seemingly immutable cycle of quarterly earnings reports. Four times a year, forget about everything…
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Abstract This paper compares mortality between Gold and Silver medalists in Olympic Track and Field to study how achievement influences health. Contrary to conventional wisdom, winners die over one year earlier than losers. I find strong evidence of differences in earnings and occupational choices as a mechanism. Losers pursued higher-paying occupations than winners according to…
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An updated chart from @JBoorman
I have snipped the abstract below from this paper – The Lure of Incredible Certitude Forthright characterization of scientific uncertainty is important in principle and serves important practical purposes. Nevertheless, economists and other researchers commonly report findings with incredible certitude, reporting point predictions and estimates. To motivate expression of incredible certitude, economists often suggest that researchers…
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