Humans by and large are appalling natural statisticians, we continually misunderstand the risk of certain events occurring. I have friends who wont swim at the beach because they are frightened of sharks by will drive for two hours to get to the beach and then sit on the sand.Details
With the Russians playing funny buggers in the Ukraine I came across the following table from the WSJ.it looks at the response of the market to a series of shocks. I was surprised to see that the Cuban missile crisis only dropped the market 2.7% .I would have thought that the prospect of Armageddon would…Details
Here are two charts I snipped from Bespoke – those folks who generate massive numbers of metrics very few of which I understand. Whenever, I come across something like this the first question I ask is does it in some way assist in the trading process. Trading is an information management profession – everyday we are…Details
STOCK market investors who buy and sell on the flip of a coin might sound irresponsible, but a handful of random traders could be just what markets need to avoid bubbles and subsequent crashes. Financial booms and busts occur when traders all rush to purchase or sell stock just because others around them are. “I…Details
If you were anywhere near any of the financial media’s outlets in the past few days you could not avoid being bombarded by the superannuation industry trumpeting the returns of last year. If you missed the sycophantic, over the top, jingoistic wank fest that was the reporting of these results here is a glimpse of…Details
In the little excursion I had into the notion of the market being overvalued I visited the idea of the percentage of stocks above certain moving average being a sign of the market being overheated. The thinking behind this is that if a substantial number of stocks are above a given moving average then this…Details
If you are struggling to find metals prices, particularly some of the more obscure ones such as cobalt, magnesium and molybdenum check out InvestmentMine – it has a good collection of free charts and prices.
Freakanomics is one of my go to podcasts whilst exercising. This episode looks at how to use evidence based data to help with poverty.