A central tenet in modern economics is that crashes do not happen; we all know that they do . Therefore, the maxim should be restated as crashes are not supposed to happen according to the models we have. In fact modern economic theory be it the Efficient market Hypothesis or the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium are…
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I was doing the Market Wrap yesterday for Talking Trading and in my usual look at markets I noticed that the arse had effectively fallen out of volatility in the markets I was looking at. I have dropped in a chart below which shows the 30 day HV of a variety of instruments, I have…
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In the 2001 issue of the International Journal of Forecasting, an economist from the International Monetary Fund, Prakash Loungani, published a survey of the accuracy of economic forecasts throughout the 1990s. He reached two conclusions. The first was that forecasts are all much the same. There was little to choose between those produced by the…
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And still no one is in prison…. If you were writing a paranoidfantasyof gold price manipulation you’d be hard pressed to come up with something more on the nose than the U.K. Financial Conduct Authority’s order against Barclays. It has everything; it is the benchmark of manipulation by which all future manipulation will be measured. Well, this…
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Wonder no more…..
This is actually quite interesting. Tuesday The working week almost always commences on a Tuesday, when I’m generally in the office by 8.00am.(Editor’s note: This ‘office’ is in fact larger than most houses. It is a lavish three bedroom, two bathroom, $1 million-plus penthouse with rooftop entertaining area and pool.) Tuesdays are largely set aside…
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One of the joys of keeping odd hours is that you hear all sorts of things that make you go WTF. So I was not surprised to hear in the wee small hours someone extolling the virtues of FX. Their basic pitch was FX is the most volatile market in the world .Therefore, this translates…
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