You don’t have to wait long to see a headline proclaiming that some food or behaviour is associated with either an increased or a decreased health risk, or often both. How can it be that seemingly rigorous scientific studies can produce opposite conclusions? Nowadays, researchers can access a wealth of software packages that can readily analyse…
Details
It is at this time of the year when superannuation funds crow about how good they have done and of their inestimable benefit to mankind in general and this year was no exception. So as is my now annual tradition I thought I would have a look at how good they have done and compare…
Details
In my junk folder I have for the past upteen decades been getting random charts by a group called Chart of the Day. Surprisingly, I dont get them everyday – so the implication that you get a chart everyday that is interesting is perhaps a little bit of an oversell. This morning I go the…
Details
It may cost more than $100 million, but many social problems could be alleviated with the creative infusion of cash. Compensating organ donors could increase the supply of organs and save thousands of lives annually. Paying opium farmers in Afghanistan and Latin America to grow something else could bring an even larger dividend in averted…
Details
I snipped this table from Business Insider – it shows the likelihood of various sorts of maladies befalling the average American. Apart from the appalling statistic for gun violence my guess is that it is roughly transferable to Australia. It highlights the profound disconnect between true risk as expressed as a number that is harsh…
Details
This is a chart of investor sentiment as produced by the American Association of Individual Investors. Each week the association polls its members with the question where do you feel the stockmarket will be in the next six months. The results are tallied to give a percentage bullish, bearish or undecided. These sorts of metrics…
Details
In somewhat of a similar vein to the post on scary charts I came across this piece yesterday – For the past 40-50 yrs, those years ended with “7?” always spell trouble. 1977? – International Currency Crisis 1987?- Oct 19 Black Monday Crash 1997?- Asia Financial Crisis 2007?- US sub-prime Crisis 2017? – ? There…
Details
Wish I had done this….. In early 2014 charts were circulating around the internet comparing the 2014 market to 1928-1929. One such chart is shown below. The below chart was taken from an article that highlighted the fallacy of these comparisons. In fact, this type of scare tactic infiltrated the main stream media where a…
Details
I was mucking around on the Valuer Generals site the other day searching for historical bits and pieces relating to my property when I noticed that the VG kept historical records on their estimation of the median house price in Melbourne. One of the things I have always found difficult in real estate is not…
Details