The thing that got me thinking about this idea was a piece that flashed briefly across one of my aggregators about which was better Coke (KO) or Pepsi (PEP) and I dont mean in the ways of the old Pepsi challenge that some of us would remember. To be honest I didn’t pay it much…
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The most telling part of the piece – The least-gifted children of high-income parents graduate from college at higher rates than the most-gifted children of low-income parents.” No doubt this is a universal phenomena. The graphic below shows that the raw material for being successful is evenly distributed across socio-economic groups but the expression of…
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With the US market having a conniption overnight I thought I would play with excel at look at those periods where the market had fallen by 2% or more in a session. The first thing I noticed was how few falls there are of this magnitude or greater even going back to 1950. As you…
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One of the things that most surprised me when I moved into finance as a profession (I use the term loosely) was the stunning lack of evidence for most of the things that were spoken about. My observation was that this lack of substantiation seemed to be a vertically integrated industry. Nobel Prizes were handed…
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I seem to be spending a fair bit of time talking about returns either via email, PM or via the blog. The most common question I get seems to revolve around the simple idea of what can I expect and is X figure realistic. This figure is generally a number that is wholly unrealistic in…
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Bored with the usual headline of the looming war with China, North Korea, Russia and the Packenham Upper Under 12B’s the Murdoch press has now turned its hyperbolic panic based radar onto the housing market. Apparently that house you bought last year for $3M is now worth one ugly camel, a distributor from a Datsun…
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It may sound weird but I really like playing with software that simulates distributions – it probably comes from when I had a semester free at Uni and simply took subjects that looked interesting. One of the ones I dropped into was Mathematical Ecology which is largely the mathematics of natural distributions. I found it…
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The opinion research organization Ipsos MORI conducted a detailed survey of 26,489 people across 28 countries that gives us an answer.1 Most people think global poverty is rising when in fact the opposite is happening The first chart shows how the surveyed people answered the following question: “In the last 20 years, the proportion of the world…
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