In the Mentor Program we have been in the process of building and refining a trading system. The question was posed as to what I thought the greatest impediment is to generating such systems and by extension what is the greatest drawback that individual traders face. As always the greatest source of difficulty that traders…
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One of the charts I occasionally look at is the RBA cash rate – I do so not because I think it is of any value whatsoever in making trading decisions but because it a wonderfully instructive prism through which to look at the psychology of people making long term investment decisions. The chart below…
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Most sports fans and athletes believe in hot streaks. A basketball player who has hit several shots in a row, the thinking goes, has a greater chance of hitting the next one, due to a “hot hand.” Think of Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry, who recently hit 77 straight three-pointers in practice. Yet for a long…
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I got bounced the snippet below by a punter who had taken it from The Reformed Broker This particular punter has a penchant for anything that indicates that the market might be about to have a correction of any sort. As such they are drawn to this sort of analysis. The drivel about trailing PE’s…
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I am currently rereading Nate Silvers – The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail – but Some Dont . It is a book that I consider compulsory reading for any trader. The first part of the book deals with baseball – a sporting endevour which lends itself to statistical analysis and which has seen…
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I have written often about how appalling the social sciences are at prediction and I include the financial markets within this soft science definition. The chart below shows that intriguingly this is not the case with other sciences – longer term weather forecasts are becoming more and more accurate. The interesting thing is that economists have…
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Interesting look at bubbles and the impact of timing upon them. Abstract: Investment manias and financial bubbles have likely existed for as long as humans have been involved in financial markets. In this research piece we take a look at some of the more famous market bubbles in history and the extreme volatility…
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In the circuitous way you often come to things I was looking at a collection of charts on base metals. As you can see from the screenshot below there really has been nothing to get excited about over the past few years, which puts lie to the notion of our supposed mining boom. What we…
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