It is always good to take a step back from media hype and bluster about the world ending and actually look at what is happening in the markets. I headed off to training this morning with some peanut on the radio jabbering on about how the Dow had collapsed some 350 points and I thought…
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A recent survey has found many Australians have low financial literacy; don’t understand how mortgages work or how the RBA cash rate affects them. The survey conducted by super fund-owned bank ME of 1000 people found that almost half of Australians admit to being uninformed about the mortgage market. Furthermore, 40 per cent of survey respondents did not…
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In the Mentor Program we have been in the process of building and refining a trading system. The question was posed as to what I thought the greatest impediment is to generating such systems and by extension what is the greatest drawback that individual traders face. As always the greatest source of difficulty that traders…
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One of the charts I occasionally look at is the RBA cash rate – I do so not because I think it is of any value whatsoever in making trading decisions but because it a wonderfully instructive prism through which to look at the psychology of people making long term investment decisions. The chart below…
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Most sports fans and athletes believe in hot streaks. A basketball player who has hit several shots in a row, the thinking goes, has a greater chance of hitting the next one, due to a “hot hand.” Think of Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry, who recently hit 77 straight three-pointers in practice. Yet for a long…
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I got bounced the snippet below by a punter who had taken it from The Reformed Broker This particular punter has a penchant for anything that indicates that the market might be about to have a correction of any sort. As such they are drawn to this sort of analysis. The drivel about trailing PE’s…
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I am currently rereading Nate Silvers – The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail – but Some Dont . It is a book that I consider compulsory reading for any trader. The first part of the book deals with baseball – a sporting endevour which lends itself to statistical analysis and which has seen…
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I have written often about how appalling the social sciences are at prediction and I include the financial markets within this soft science definition. The chart below shows that intriguingly this is not the case with other sciences – longer term weather forecasts are becoming more and more accurate. The interesting thing is that economists have…
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