As you may know, I am no economist – I am not even an aspiring economist. My thoughts on the profession of economics are well known. However, I do like data and I do like asking questions about the data I find. I was reviewing the performance of a basket of commodities over the last…
This week, the real estate mogul and billionaire Sam Zell said, “There is a high probability that we are looking at a recession in the next 12 months.” The culprit, he told “Bloomberg Go,” was the strong dollar and slowing global trade, the beginnings of layoffs at multinational companies and a general lack of demand. The bears of…
Baring some other catastrophe the current uptick in interest rates in the US (and eventually here) will be the most important “economic “event” of the year with ramifications not so much for equities but definitely for real estate. Interest rates have been in a long-term drift downwards for three decades as shown in the chart…
Inflation is back with a vengeance. This week the BLS reported 6.2% inflation for the year ending October 2021. And, as Bloomberg noted, this is the highest inflation has been since 1990: While this can be somewhat alarming, inflation from October 2019 to October 2020 was just 1.2%, so the two-year inflation is about 3.7% on an annualized…
Much has been written about how life will be after we are done with COVID-19 – some of it sensible, some of it mere hyperbole but one of the more thoughtful pieces I have come across is this one by Paul Kedrosky a venture capitalist who jotted down some thoughts in one of his in…
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