I had not intended for my Is The Market Overvalued? piece to become a two parter but I came across the following chart courtesy of the people at Bespoke, who produce a dazzling array of metrics. This chart looks at the number of S&P500 stocks which are above their 50 day moving average.…
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This is a question that tends to get posed at boardrooms and dinner parties any time the market has had an extended run. Whenever, someone poses this question to me, my immediate and somewhat flippant answer is don’t know and don’t care. My response is based upon the notion that I feel it is the…
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Whilst travelling during the week I was asked by someone what is the single most practical thing a trader can do to give themselves an edge. The question has an easy answer – trade in the direction of the prevailing trend. As easy as it is most people ignore it completely and all fund managers…
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We are rational, self-interested optimizers: Homo economicus. So the neoclassical model of economics has held for over a century. It has been a fruitful model, at the heart of the discipline’s most profound theories, predictions and policy prescriptions. According to Richard Thaler, it is also flawed. Humans in the real world, Thaler points out, behave…
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There has been a bit of chatter on the Mentor forum about the philosophy of buying blue chip portfolios so I thought I would generate a simple table of the maximum drawdown experienced by each of the ASX 20 since 2000. As you can see the drawdowns are for the most part horrendous with…
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I love this sort of stuff – data analysis being applied to sport.
Whilst away for a strategy meeting last week part of the conversation drifted to the notion of working for yourself as a lifestyle choice. A subset of that discussion was simply why the f#%k would you willingly work for someone else. We all tried to work out the premium that would be required for us…
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