This piece coincides nicely with a book I have just finished reading called The Importability Principle by David J Hand which disappointingly is actually quite dull. Although it does do a good job of explaining the inevitability of single people winning lotteries multiple times. Get enough people doing the same thing for long enough and…Details
I love a bit of data analysis.
A central tenet in modern economics is that crashes do not happen; we all know that they do . Therefore, the maxim should be restated as crashes are not supposed to happen according to the models we have. In fact modern economic theory be it the Efficient market Hypothesis or the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium are…Details
I was doing the Market Wrap yesterday for Talking Trading and in my usual look at markets I noticed that the arse had effectively fallen out of volatility in the markets I was looking at. I have dropped in a chart below which shows the 30 day HV of a variety of instruments, I have…Details
In the 2001 issue of the International Journal of Forecasting, an economist from the International Monetary Fund, Prakash Loungani, published a survey of the accuracy of economic forecasts throughout the 1990s. He reached two conclusions. The first was that forecasts are all much the same. There was little to choose between those produced by the…Details
And still no one is in prison…. If you were writing a paranoidfantasyof gold price manipulation you’d be hard pressed to come up with something more on the nose than the U.K. Financial Conduct Authority’s order against Barclays. It has everything; it is the benchmark of manipulation by which all future manipulation will be measured. Well, this…Details
Wonder no more…..