When you wander into the work of Kahneman and Tversky far enough, you come to find their fingerprints in places you never imagined even existed. It’s alive in the work of the psychologist Philip Tetlock, who famously studied the predictions of putative political experts and found they were less accurate than predictions made by simple…
DetailsI have been following The Atlantics remarkable photo essay on WW2. The entire series can be found here Parts of it as you would expect are brutal in the extreme but it does show the extraordinary resilience of people in times of appalling violence. The current series is about life after the war and the image below…
DetailsThe chart below is from Merrill Lynch’s Market Analysis and it shows according to their definition the last four major bear markets including the bastard of a one we are stuck in at present. From my perspective the issue is the relevance of such charts – granted there are lost decades for buy and hold…
DetailsI came across this interesting little graphic in the NYT at the weekend and thought interesting little picture might see what the underlying article has to say. To save you the trouble of reading it, the article is a little piece regarding volatility and the lack of movement in the S&P500. The concluding paragraph of the article is as…
DetailsThought I would knock up a dodgy chart looking at the daily returns on the All Ords for the past 10 years versus the past two years. As you can see the past two years has not been the best time to be a long side trader or buy and hold peanut. Ten Years Two…
DetailsThe hedge-fund industry just had its fourth-worst quarter on record, according to one industry watcher. Hedge funds lost 5.5% in the quarter, according to Hedge Fund Research Inc., “trailing only the third and fourth quarters of 2008 and the third quarter of 1998.” More here This is not surprising – as I have mentioned before…
DetailsInteresting talk by Sony Kapoor a former Lehman employee on how the financial system works versus how it actually should work.
A little piece that looks at the history of hating banks – who would have thunk that hating people who skew rules to suit themselves was a long held tradition.