This is an interesting article from Wired the science mag. Although looking at the only graphic in the article I am not certain their metric is doing what the article claims that it is capable of doing. If you look at the graphic it began its move towards zero (the crash zone) in 2003 and…

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Just looking…..

Have you ever fired up the Google box for the purposes of finding something pertinent and relevant to your next task only to find yourself four hours later amazed by your new found knowledge that a crocodile cannot stick out its tongue or that there is no Betty Rubble in The Flintstones chewable vitamins. Seeking…

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Predictions….again

Following on from the posting on why fund managers fail to generate positive alpha . I thought I would look at the notion of cognitive blindness and emotional overconfidence within the domain of prediction. This was prompted by set of predictions I came across for this year by a group known as Bespoke who have produced a…

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