Risk

There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don’t know we don’t know. Donald Rumsfeld, Former US Secretary of Defense If…

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Groupon

The current bubble in social media companies is fascinating to watch and has all the hallmarks of every bubble since the Dutch Tulip boom. I have had a voyeuristic interest in Groupon for some time. I have a mate whose extended family is involved in a similar venture domestically – which has proved to be…

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While On The Topic Of Bubbles

Market efficiency, anticipation and the formation of bubbles-crashes A dynamical model is introduced for the formation of a bullish or bearish trends driving an asset price in a given market. Initially, each agent decides to buy or sell according to its personal opinion, which results from the combination of its own private information, the public…

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Simple Heresy

Piece from Science Week about how very simple decision making processes are trumping very complex financial machinations. My favourite part – Given a portfolio of the same 50 stocks, an investor would need to wait 500 years before Markowitz’s Nobel-winning formula yielded superior returns to 1/N, the researchers estimated.

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