One of the things that has always fascinated me about technical analysis is the capacity of people to argue over the irrelevant. I am quite certain there are blokes in little clubs all over the world arguing that the RSI should be set to 12 and not 9 because that makes all the difference. It…
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Survivor bias is a perennial problem in systems testing. Put simply survivor bias is the logical fallacy of ascribing a value to something that has past a given bench mark or hurdle by virtue of longevity. In doing so you overlook those things that have disappeared along the way. For example lets assume I was…
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Trail running has long been my happy place. Actually, any form of running enables me to start my day invigorated and ready to go. Regular exercise associates with many upsides. Exercising so that we can live longer is a draw for a few. Most master athletes I have met exercise because they have to. They…
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By saying that it is hard being human I am not referring to the day to day minutia of working, paying bills, interacting with others or the collapse towards entropy that we call ageing. Rather I am referring to understanding the world in a logical, data driven manner. Over the years I have come to…
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The DSM-5 says that roughly 15% of people meet the criteria for a personality disorder. And most of them are never diagnosed. Now you’re not a psychiatrist and neither am I, so we shouldn’t run around diagnosing people… But we can learn enough to recognize if someone is a “high-conflict person”, reasonably give a diagnosis of “no good for…
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As the year draws to a close on a down note my inbox is full of wonderful end of the year offers promising me that they can save me from the next crash, which is very kind of them. These offers are a mix of divine prediction and the packaging and selling of common tools…
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I came across this chart the other day and the message it was trying to convey intrigued me. The chart is from this Vanguard update. I am intrigued because the chart is saying that the market rewards those who hold for the long term – in essence it is talking about a buy and hold…
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Out-running ‘bad’ diets: beyond weight loss there is clear evidence of the benefits of physical activity Of course there is evidence of the benefits of physical activity but your chances of out running a bad diet are practically zero because to do so you would need to exercise at this intensity for much longer than this…
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