The Hook: The Trader’s Paradox The amateur’s fatal error is the belief that a better indicator, a faster data feed, or a more complex algorithm will finally bridge the gap to profitability. But for most, the problem isn’t the strategy; it’s the execution. The driver is always the problem. Takeaway 1: Your Subconscious is an…
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Last week, I wrote this piece – Great Stocks, Bad Entries. The idea was to look at whether delayed entry timing had a material effect on returns. I found that entering 40 trading days after the original breakout still produced strong 12-month returns. The conclusion was nuanced yet clear: the quality of the stock dominated that of…
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One of the mantras I run in my head is a simple question – have I added value somewhere today?” It doesn’t have to be anything earth shattering. Even small gestures count. When I commit something to public view, I try as much as possible to make it a positive contribution – unfortunately, at times…
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The very clever and detailed infographic below comes from Robin Dods via X (Twitter). It shows the nightmare scenario investors face when using a DRP over a stock portfolio.
It is said that there are only two certainties in life – death and taxes. To this, we can add governments being total f$5ckheads. I have been trying to get my head around some of the raft of changes the government introduced in the budget. This is my best attempt to view them from a…
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What do you do when the market feels like it’s being pushed around by politics, global events, and constant breaking news? Do you react… or do you stay the course? In this episode of Talking Trading, Louise Bedford sits down with Jason McIntosh to unpack how experienced traders navigate volatile markets without being pulled off…
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Markets broadly operate in two dominant phases: wealth creation and wealth destruction. Too often, investors and traders fail to participate fully in the former, only to allow the latter to devastate whatever gains they may have made. Such a situation is unfolding on the ASX at present with CSL. For decades, CSL was viewed as…
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Most investors believe currency hedging reduces risk.It sounds intelligent. It sounds prudent. It sounds like control. But in reality? Currency hedging often does the exact opposite. In this video, I break down why hedged ETFs—like the difference between IVV and IHVV— don’t reduce risk, don’t improve returns, and may actually damage long-term performance. Because what…
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Betting on binary outcomes—such as the outcome of a drug trial—introduces a fundamentally different risk profile to most forms of trading. In conventional market environments, trades tend to fail gradually. Prices move against the position in increments, allowing the trader to respond: stops can be adjusted, positions reduced, or risk reassessed. Losses unfold over time,…
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