Why Gold Isn’t Acting Like a Safe Haven

Financial markets contain certain relationships that appear sacrosanct. Traders are comforted by rules that never seem to alter, and by which they believe they could literally set their watches. One of the most persistent links is betweenmadness in the Middle East, rising oil prices, and gold prices. Historically, the pattern has been straightforward. When geopolitical…

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The Scale of China

If you look up small, rooted backwaters whose politicians think we are more important than we are in the dictionary, you will find Australia. If you look up a global behemoth with 4000 years of history, you will discover China. I really don’t think people, particularly right-wing politicians, understand the significance of the changes that…

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The Economy Is Not The Market

“Give me a one-handed Economist. All my economists say ‘on ONE hand…’, then ‘but on the other…”― Harry Truman. I’m often sent snippets and commentary from various economists — well-meaning professionals who aim to explain what the market should or should not be doing, based on their models of economic fundamentals. But there’s a consistent…

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Its Not The Economy – STUPID!

Consider the chart below comparing the FTSE 100 and the Nikkei performances. Both have economies that as best could be described as moribund but the Nieekei has been motoring. The trap for investors and traders is that they assume that it is the economy that drives the market as such they hang off every economic…

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The Alpha Cycle

Industries in which capital has become abundant and optimism unbridled often end up disappointing investors. Echoes of these capital cycle pitfalls are also evident in active fund manager selection. In the ‘alpha cycle’ a certain area of the market delivers high returns, stories then emerge not only about the compelling opportunities to be found but…

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