One of the great failings of fundamental analysis is its reliance upon the narrative as its means of communication. Brokers will often ask analysts – whats the story? Meaning how can I sell this to the client. We are hardwired for narrative rather than data and this causes us enormnous problems in everything from dealing…
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Nothing in life is to be feared, only understood – Marie Curie It is no secret the Marie Curie is one of my intellectual idols – the only person to win two Nobel Prizes in different disciplines. I don’t count the Peace prize won by the likes of Linus Pauling since it is a bullshit popularity…
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What would be your perfect day? How would you look, feel, and what would you be doing? Strangely, when I’ve asked this to civilians (people outside our close-knit trading community), they don’t even know the answer. But I’ll bet you, if you think about it, you’ll know what you perfect day looks like. You know…
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I was talking to my friend, Alan Furlong, on the phone the other day. He’s a loyal follower of the positive psychology movement. I asked him “Alan – what should someone do if they really don’t like their job?” Without hesitation, he said “Quit”. I have to admit, his answer freaked me out. But the…
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An interesting interview with Marc Adreessen the inventor of Netscape and venture capitalist. He makes the following poiint – What did you do? I just went to college. I did my thing. I came out here in ’94, and Silicon Valley was in hibernation. In high school, I actually thought I was going to have…
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Your feelings don’t just LAND on you. You generate them. And if you generate sad feelings, you can also generate energising, happy and exuberant emotions. Take responsibility for the way you’re feeling right now. If you are ‘losing hope’ it means that you haven’t chosen to generate hope in your life. It means that you…
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The planning fallacy is related to optimism bias (think Lake Wobegon—where all the children are above average) and self-serving bias (where the good stuff is deemed to be my doing while the bad stuff is always someone else’s fault). We routinely overrate our own capacities and exaggerate our abilities to shape the future. Thus the…
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It may seem liberating to live in a land of infinite choices, but research in decision-making suggests otherwise. In a classic study, Stanford researchers set up shop at an upscale grocery store chosen for its “extraordinary selection” of items, including 300 types of jam. One Saturday afternoon, they set up a sampling booth with 24 jams;…
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If you’re living in Lebanon you need to know the right people to get ahead, but in Uganda, sheer luck is important. That’s what people in those countries say are the keys to success. A Pew report released Thursday reached the conclusion that people in developing economies are more likely to think the next generation will be…
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