This is probably quite topical given the developments of the past few days. BRADLEY ALFORD, a money manager in Atlanta, just hit the panic button. No, really. Mr. Alford just hit the key on his computer that initiates the Wall Street equivalent of the nuclear option: Sell everything. He was acting on orders from two…
Interesting piece on the evolution of overconfidence Confidence is an essential ingredient of success in a wide range of domains ranging from job performance and mental health, to sports, business, and combat. Some authors have suggested that not just confidence but overconfidence-believing you are better than you are in reality-is advantageous because it serves to…
Following on from this post – Freakanomics Radio has an hour long special on the pointlessness of predictions. It’s impossible to predict the future, but humans can’t help themselves. From the economy to the presidency to the Super Bowl, educated and intelligent people promise insight and repeatedly fail by wide margins. These mistakes and misses…
Superstition appears to arise from situations of uncertainty (Burger & Lynn, 2005; Felson & Gmelch, 1979; Vyse, 1997). Skinner (1948) was one of the first to document’ superstition’ as a way of describing the behaviors pigeons showed when reinforced with food on a fixed time interval. The pigeons were presented with a situation in which…
Have you ever fired up the Google box for the purposes of finding something pertinent and relevant to your next task only to find yourself four hours later amazed by your new found knowledge that a crocodile cannot stick out its tongue or that there is no Betty Rubble in The Flintstones chewable vitamins. Seeking…
I have referenced the work of Tim Harford particularly his wonderful series of podcasts This is an excellent video of the fallibilities of humans and the errors we make.
I have opined at length about predictions within the financial market and how crap people are at making predictions and how they and everyone else dont seem to care about their lack of accuracy. Their is not the slightest hint of embarrassment among experts that they are continually wrong. This nice little piece by Robin…
Psychologist: Why we screw up when the heat is on Psychologist Sian Beilock has investigated what happens in the brain when our performance crumbles under pressure. She talked to Tiffany O’Callaghan about what it takes to stay on form under stress, and why being smarter can be more hindrance than help What made you want to research…
I’ve often thought that trading is the world’s most equal opportunity employer. This wonderful fact comes about because the market neither knows nor cares about you. Therefore by extension it doesn’t care about your age, race, religion, sex or education. The fact that you may have an MBA from the Wharton School of Business or…
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