Assumption is the mother of all fuck ups…. The recent fall out from the movement in the CHF has been interesting to watch. If ever you wanted to clear out the retail FX space I dont think anyone could have come up with a better plan than the actions of the SNB, it was a…
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Trading is easy when it is going well and during these periods of profitability you learn nothing. You learn nothing because you think there is nothing to learn and winning trades just seem to spring into existence with little or no input from you (luck requires no input). The time when you learn things both…
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One of the issues currently bedevilling FX markets is the combination of low volatility and steady interest rates – these in concert add up to a profoundly dull market where the majority of major pairs are going sideways. Interestingly, it is also have an affect on turnover as can be seen in the chart below.…
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In light of the appalling events of last week it is instructive to look at the markets reaction to such news and to see what can be learnt about the psychology of markets. In analysing what went on in the least two days of the week it is necessary to set aside ones emotions about…
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Well….I am still long the Dow, boring that it is. The interesting thing about markets at or around new highs is the emotional problems they seem to bring. Traders struggle with the notion of buying something that is higher than it has been in recent times simply because we have inbuilt cultural notions about what…
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A central tenet in modern economics is that crashes do not happen; we all know that they do . Therefore, the maxim should be restated as crashes are not supposed to happen according to the models we have. In fact modern economic theory be it the Efficient market Hypothesis or the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium are…
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Earlier this week I reinstated my longs on the Dow – the combination of a breakout to new highs and a low volatility is hard for me to resist and as fate would have it the market decided it would reverse. So what does this mean for this position? At present nothing, markets do…
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I came across this chart over the weekend. It looks at the volatility of stock, bond and currencies markets. The article that accompanies it falls into a trap I have commented on before namely, that volatility and changes in volatility are predictive. My view is that they are post-dictive – that is they react after…
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