One of the charts I occasionally look at is the RBA cash rate – I do so not because I think it is of any value whatsoever in making trading decisions but because it a wonderfully instructive prism through which to look at the psychology of people making long term investment decisions. The chart below…
With them dropping Bond into a box today I thought it was a good time to reflect and reminisce on the 1980’s. One of the good things about having been around so long is that you get a keen sense of the history of the markets – this is one of the things the fly…
There is no rational basis for these phenomena “A major study by the economists Xavier Gabaix and Augustin Landier, who happen to believe that current compensation levels are economically efficient,” writes the New Yorker, “ found that if the company with the 250-most-talented CEO suddenly managed to hire the most talented CEO its value would increase…
Homma is rumoured to have made the equivalent of $10 billion in today’s dollars trading in the Japanese rice markets. In fact, he was such a skilled trader that he served as an important financial advisor to the Japanese government at the time and was later raised to the rank of honorary Samurai. I don’t…
Have we reached peak green juice? The New York Times’ Brooks Barnes suggests as much in a recent story about what a haute-hippie refuge in California is bringing to an already over-saturated market: With every mini-mall, gas station and gym in Los Angeles now boasting a juice bar, or so it seems, the truly cutting-edge folks need to raise…
With the Nasdaq moving to challenge its all time high the question being asked is whether this bull run and move to new highs is a bubble. From my perspective the question is pointless since whether a market could be defined as being in a bubble or not is a function of whatever narrative you…
Here in Victoria we are pleased that our high speed country trains are capable of maintaining a staggering 60km/hr, provided of course it is neither too hold nor too cold. More here – theguardian
I have written often about how appalling the social sciences are at prediction and I include the financial markets within this soft science definition. The chart below shows that intriguingly this is not the case with other sciences – longer term weather forecasts are becoming more and more accurate. The interesting thing is that economists have…
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