Do investors holding an asset in the midst of a price bubble all come to share similar beliefs, even if they did not do so previously? Asset price bubbles are unfailingly supported by a captivating narrative, which is ‘validated’ by price movements, draws in investors and allows for traditional valuation considerations to be discarded. It…
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The WSJ generated a neat little chart that put the rise of Bitcoin this year into context by dropping it in a timeline with other speculative bubbles. One of the joys of longevity is I remember all of these bubbles and have participated in all bubble since the 1980’s stock market boom and the life…
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In national security, social network analysis is used to identify potential terrorists. In marketing, it can uncover the Instagram influencers who are best positioned to sell a company’s product. But social network theory—the study of how different people or things interact with one another, often revealing the most influential and well-connected people among a certain population—can also,…
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Martha Lillard spends half of every day with her body encapsulated in a half-century old machine that forces her to breathe. Only her head sticks out of the end of the antique iron lung. On the other side, a motorized lever pulls the leather bellows, creating negative pressure that induces her lungs to suck in…
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I have been spending some more time playing with the data set below which I looked at last week within the context of long term returns for the All Ordinaries. One of the issues that is difficult for traders to come to grips with is the lumpiness of returns that are generated by trading systems.…
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WHEN HRISTOS DOUCOULIAGOS was a young economist in the mid-1990s, he got interested in all the ways economics was wrong about itself—bias, underpowered research, statistical shenanigans. Nobody wanted to hear it. “I’d go to seminars and people would say, ‘You’ll never get this published,’” Doucouliagos, now at Deakin University in Australia, says. “They’d say, ‘this is bordering on libel.’”…
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I have been having a bit of a play with the All Ordinaries yearly returns since 1901 and I cobbled together the table below which I have coloured red and blue. Red is those years where the return is below the average of 9.8% and blue is those years of above average return. What is…
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