I have written often about how appalling the social sciences are at prediction and I include the financial markets within this soft science definition. The chart below shows that intriguingly this is not the case with other sciences – longer term weather forecasts are becoming more and more accurate. The interesting thing is that economists have…Details
Interesting look at bubbles and the impact of timing upon them. Abstract: Investment manias and financial bubbles have likely existed for as long as humans have been involved in financial markets. In this research piece we take a look at some of the more famous market bubbles in history and the extreme volatility…Details
The story of Kodak fascinates me – the company that invented the digital camera 1975 was eventually sent broke by it. What happens after a tech company is left for dead but the people left behind refuse to give up the fight? At Kodak the answer is to dig deep into a legacy of innovation in…Details
One of the most compelling talks I saw at this year’s American Economics Association conference was by Katherine Milkman, an assistant professor at the Wharton School at Penn. She holds a joint Ph.D. in computer science and business, but her passion is behavioral economics — and, specifically, how its findings can be applied…Details
Helena Matute, a psychologist at Deusto University in Bilbao, Spain, and her colleagues enlisted 147 college students to take part in a computer-based task in which they each played a doctor who specializes in a fictitious rare disease and assessed whether new medications could cure it. In phase one of the study, the student volunteers…Details
As someone who comes from a data driven background one of the things that has always intrigued me about financial markets is that despite being a wellspring of raw data it is driven by narratives. Humans do seem to prefer stories over data – in effect we are a hairless ape that prefers stories to…Details
The Large Hadron Collider is the largest machine ever built with a circumference of 27 kilometres and when operating at full power particles whiz around the circumference 11,000 times per second.