RIP Mr Miyagi
Your Brain Is Primed To Reach False Conclusions
Paul Offit likes to tell a story about how his wife, pediatrician Bonnie Offit, was about to give a child a vaccination when the kid was struck by a seizure. Had she given the injection a minute sooner, Paul Offit says, it would surely have appeared as though the vaccine had caused the seizure and…
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Importance of Simple Forecasting Methods
As long ago as the fourth century B.C., scientists have argued in favor of simplicity. Perhaps the most familiar expression of the importance of simplicity for science is the 14th century formulation known as Occam’s razor, a line of reasoning that holds that the simplest answer is often correct. The preference for simplicity in science…
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Daniel Kahneman on Intuition and the Outside View
Michael Mauboussin: When does intuition work or fail? Daniel Kahneman: Intuition works less often than we think. There is no such thing as professional “expertise.” The Intuitions in chess masters develop with “big data” comes from experience. For people, the immediacy of feedback is especially important to learn the basis of expertise. When feedback comes…
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Japan
They say that travel broadens the mind and for the most part I agree with this sentiment but for a simple caveat. It only does so for those who are sufficiently self aware to remove themselves from the strictures of their own culture and the emotional and psychological baggage that it entails. If you remain…
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Slow Ideas
On October 16, 1846, at Massachusetts General Hospital, Morton administered his gas through an inhaler in the mouth of a young man undergoing the excision of a tumor in his jaw. The patient only muttered to himself in a semi-conscious state during the procedure. The following day, the gas left a woman, undergoing surgery to…
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A Short Lesson in Perspective
This is an old piece – the author Linds Redding died in 2012 aged 52 from oesophageal cancer. This is one of his last pieces and it is a rant directed at the advertising industry but it can apply to any industry. And here’s the thing. It turns out I didn’t actually like my old…
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